Rock and a Hard Place

One of the most exciting things to happen during my Coronvirus captivity was getting a call from my daughter telling me she was stuck on a beach in a car, and she couldn't get out. She was practicing her driving (with my father-in-law), unfortunately driving onto sand that was a bit too deep. It reminded me of my youth, where I have been in countless acts of lousy judgment (stupidity?) involving a car. They include taking a 90-mile road trip to Lake Geneva that included a "minor" accident with fellow Loupers Paul C. and Seth R. before we had our Driver's licenses. This situation resulted in my backing my dad's car over a rather large rock at the end of a driveway, leaving the car precariously teetering like a see-saw. Or, I remember getting stuck on the beach at night on a double date with Louper Seth R. (hi Heather and Eliana!), where we had to decide between calling a tow truck or (more dreadfully) our parents. There were so many bad decisions that I ultimately survived (phew), which gave me greater wisdom and knowledge of my limitations. Those were the days. I have been concerned that my kids don't have the same level of freedom that I had at the ripe old age of sixteen. I had a car, which for suburban youth equals freedom. They have taxis and uber, which means freedom of transport but without the responsibility!

These situations result from bad information and lousy judgment, which gets you (me) into the position that relies on imperfect information and lousy judgment to get out. Sometimes there is no right answer, and you are indeed stuck between a rock and a hard place. In the case of my daughter, she was with an adult, so not quite the perfect setup for personal responsibility and choice-making, but I will take what I can get. We decided to try to dig her out first. That didn't work. Then we tried to use a cable and drag the car out. That didn't work and thankfully caused no damage. Next, we called a tow truck.

I think the Coronavirus has indeed put everyone, from public officials to individuals, between a rock and a hard place. The choice between isolation and safety versus a resumption of activity and lack of security. We don't have enough information, but in the meantime, we do the best we can!

Survey Monkey

In the absence of information, how does one make decisions? I don't know about you, but I have been obsessing about data since the early days of my quarantine. My sources include:

The last two websites attempt to provide projections on where the pandemic will be in terms of infections and mortality. However, how each person processes said information will be different. I reached out to my cousin's husband, Jon Cohen, Cheif Research Officer at Survey Monkey, who knows a thing or two about polling, having worked at The Pew Research Center and The Washington Post through two elections. He provided me a survey they conducted with more than 2MM people in the US, Canada, and the UK, noting the tradeoffs between safety and resumption of business activity, among other things. However, I was more interested in what needs to be true for people to resume their normal activities, if at all. This is the critical data that discretionary public venues like restaurants, sports teams, Broadway shows, and musical performers are more interested in. So if you will humor me, please take the attached survey (here). I will provide the results for everyone who seeks it!

The Cost-Benefit Revolution
by Cass R. Sunstein

The human toll of this Pandemic is enormous. The damage includes not only the illness and deaths but also the financial toll mandatory/voluntary shutdown has taken. The conversation seems to be moving towards opening back up, likely in stages. Nonetheless, I have been ruminating about how to quantify the cost-benefit analysis of the shutdown and realize it is way above my paygrade. As a result, I was looking for sources and came across this book by Mr. Sunstein, who was the Regulation Tzar during the Obama Administration. His job was to look at regulation through the lens of cost-benefit analysis so that people may make rational, informed decisions about policies. For example, will a policy save one life or one thousand lives and how much will it cost? This book frames a number of the questions I have about the Pandemic, the government's response to it, and how to contextualize it. 

If you feel stuck between a rock and a hard place you are not alone. Consider Survey Monkey and The Cost-Benefit Revolution Found!

Activities, HealthBryan VeronaComment